Green energy market's potential to exceed €30 billion by 2040

Alina Oprea
Consulting company McKinsey & Company Romania estimates the potential of the green energy market (solar panels, heat pumps, insulation) at over €30 billion by 2040. Currently, the Romanian state is committed to providing subsidies worth over €300 million through the Casa Verde program but exploring additional financing options of up to €250 million through the European RePowerEU program. However, these subsidies are dedicated, for now, exclusively to the purchase and installation of photovoltaic panels. Of the remaining amount of up to €30 billion, it is estimated that around €20 billion could be covered by banks through loan offers, which can accelerate the transition to green energy products.

The costs for the installation with photovoltaic panels are on average €1,200-1,400 / kW and can reach up to €15,000 for large installations, a significant financial commitment for many Romanian consumers, in a context of financial instability and lack of predictability that it helps them to be able to estimate and justify this investment. It can, however, be extremely profitable, given the fact that most of those who use this solution recover their investment in approximately 3 years (assuming the support of Casa Verde) and 6 years (without the support of Casa Verde). Adding a heat pump to replace gas heating, as well as a battery to store excess electricity production, can bring an additional cost of over €20,000.

Romanian banks have the opportunity to make up for the financing deficit, while at the same time managing to achieve their own sustainability and growth objectives. The current offers of loans dedicated to consumers to finance green energy solutions are limited to consumer loans with a financing duration of up to 5 years and high-interest rates compared to other types of loans, and too little personalized for the needs they cover.

In addition, at the moment there are few successful examples of players that mediate the consumer process, from choosing the right solutions, to financing and installing them. An integrated player should offer specialized consultancy in green electricity systems, evaluate the energy potential of the home (including a profitability calculation), ensure the installation of technical equipment, mediate the relationship of the household consumer with a credit institution and facilitate the process bureaucratic process of obtaining prosumer status.

To fill this funding gap, banks have the opportunity to come to market with new flexible financing solutions that allow customers to use the savings from green energy to repay their loans. In addition, banks' partnerships with energy providers can simplify the process that consumers have to go through to connect to the electricity grid and thus become prosumers, as some of them offer support in mediating the process with distribution companies.

To achieve the EU's goal of becoming energy neutral by 2050, all member states, including Romania, will have to abandon any energy systems that emit greenhouse gases and adopt environmentally friendly solutions.

In the Integrated National Plan in the field of Energy and Climate Change, Romania included measures to reduce carbon emissions, increase energy efficiency and increase the share of renewable energy sources in total energy production. These include:

- Zero-carbon electricity: Consumers should be encouraged to switch from polluting energy sources such as coal and natural gas to renewable sources such as solar or wind energy

- Electrification of the energy system: Transition to electricity as the main source of energy, including as a method of heating homes

- Streamlining energy efficiency benefits: Reducing energy consumption by switching to more energy-efficient equipment and appliances, as well as improving the energy efficiency of buildings

To encourage the transition to green energy, the Romanian Government has introduced a series of subsidies that allow consumers to adopt more ecological measures and solutions: VAT of 5% instead of 19% for heat pumps and photovoltaic panels, as well as a subsidy of up to €4,000 for the installation of photovoltaic panels. However, the budget for 2023 foresees only slightly more than 80,000 such subsidies offered. To these could be added an additional budget of around €250 million through the RePowerEU program, which would provide subsidies of up to €5,000.

In a growing market, where approximately 45% of Romanians say they are interested in installing solar panels in the next year (according to a study by an electricity company, carried out at the end of 2022), the Government's financing plans reach the current capacity of installation for the next year but remain insufficient to meet consumer demands.

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